Sunday, 15 June 2014

Adjusted Draft Year Scoring For CHL Prospects

After adjusting scoring for age and era, it's clear that no CHLer has ever been as prolific as Sidney Crosby.
Here is a table showing the age and era adjusted scoring for every CHL forward drafted in the 1st round of the NHL entry draft since 2003, as well as some 2014 draft eligibles (highlighted with red text). My method for adjusting draft year scoring for age can be found here, and my method for adjusting scoring rate for era and CHL league was described in this post. All of total points per game, just age adjusted points per game, just era adjusted points per game, and a combined age and era adjusted points per game are included:

* = Draft year was unavailable due to injury, so draft-1 year was used instead. The age adjustment likely understates how well these players performed as 16-year olds in the CHL.
** = Drafted as a draft+1 player, so draft year scoring was used.


  1. A couple of minor points I noted while scanning through the list, and maybe I'm reading your chart incorrectly, but: a) David Perron was drafted in 2007 at the age of 19 after his rookie QMJHL season. That was his second year of draft eligibility. b) Tanner Pearson was drafted in 2012, his third year of eligibility. He played his draft year in the GOJHL and went to the OHL afterwards.

    (and of course c) Mikhail Grigorenko is 30 years old)

    In any case, great work doing this!

    1. Yup, you're right. Thanks for catching those.